Copyright © 2018

Global Macro Strategist

global-macro-strategist
  • Etoro

Hi Everyone,

Even though I’ve been blogging on financial markets for several years now, it’s always great to get some tips from those in the industry who are a bit more established and experienced. So, today I wanted to share a funny short post with you from a guy named Joshua Brown (AKA the @ReformedBroker).

 

 

Now, you may have noticed the date on the post is pretty old and I’m pretty sure I must have read it once or twice before but it resurfaced on my feed today and just seemed relevant.

The blog includes all kinds of ways to add urgency for the readers even when everything is going smoothly. I’m definitely guilty of using many of the titles that Josh used in his examples as a way of drawing in my dear readers. And why not?!

There are often issues and soft spots or even tailwinds that deserve highlighting as well as market themes that can create large potentially lucrative trading trends for better or worse.

Case in point, anybody who ignored the FUD and started investing on the day the above post was written would have by now made phenomenal gains. An investment of $10,000 on April 25th, 2011 in the Dow Jones would today be worth $22,142.

This is why it usually pays to be an optimist. That is of course until something does happen that puts the whole thing at risk in which case it’s probably best to hedge yourself and make adjustments.

So for my part, the goal is to keep the content as entertaining as possible on a day to day basis, while still providing valuable insight, to keep you all as engaged as possible so that when the big clear opportunities present themselves we’re all able to take full advantage.

 

eToro, Senior Market Analyst

 

Today’s Highlights

  • Economic Club
  • Kiwi Flys
  • Payments War Heats Up

 

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of November 13th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

 

Traditional Markets

Unfortunately, the President’s speech at the Economic Club last night was a total let down. Rather than some real progress, in the end, we were treated to the same tired talking points.

We’ve heard it before… China really wants a deal but I’m not sure if I want to make a deal. We’re getting close to a deal but if we don’t make a deal tariffs will go up again. That, along with some swipes at the Fed who raised rates too much and didn’t cut them fast enough. So basically, zero progress.

Also weighing on stocks today is the Spanish government who finally managed to put together a coalition, breaking a 6-month deadlock. Unfortunately though, it seems like the deal will share powers between unnatural allies and the cabinet will need to be split between them. The Spanish Index is not happy about this at all…

 

 

Though I’m glad that the global recession that seemed so certain a few weeks ago, now seems to be off the table, it’s not exactly reassuring to see stocks tapering off lately. Still, the FOMO among top analysts has been getting strong lately and that’s not something that I’d personally choose to trifle with.

 

The Kiwi Flys

Last night the Forex market was served with a cold surprise as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand refused to cut interest rates.

A cut was definitely what the markets had ordered and seem to have been priced in but instead, the RBNZ decided to hold fire. The result on the NZDUSD was a massive pump of 1.3% in less than a minute.

 

 

Now, not sure how many of you were able to catch that trade. Probably not too many but the point here is the trend of central banks cutting rates is now in question. Certainly, the Fed did their darndest in the last meeting to signal that the cuts are done. Perhaps this sentiment is being felt elsewhere as well. In any case, the future of global monetary policy seems pretty uncertain at this particular moment.

Later today we’ll get testimony from the Fed’s Jerome Powell, who may shed some light on this… or may not. I guess we’ll need to watch to find out.

 

Payments War Heating Up

Now that Apple Pay seems to be in a bit of hot water over allegations on its algos, seemingly on cue two of their long-time rivals have jumped into the payment space today.

Both Facebook and Google have now made their own announcements that signify they’re ready to take the war for payments to the next level.

Facebook with its new Facebook Pay app will consolidate all transactions through FB Messanger, WhatsApp, and Instagram. Still unclear is whether this is supposed to be a pilot for Libra or a complete replacement. Something I had the pleasure of speaking with BlockTV’s Yael Lavie about this morning.

Early this morning Google announced their intention to get deeper into financial services with their own checking accounts.

 

 

Of course they plan to leave the nitty-gritty details to the traditional finance folks. All Google is really interested in is your financial data and for that I’m sure they’ll be willing to slap a kickass GUI and possibly a bit of value add as far as fees and rates are concerned.

Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple, they all just want to be like Tencent who’s been dominating Chinese payments for nearly a decade. In fact, the earnings report from Tencent today seemed to contain just as much valuable insight into the Chinese consumer than it did the actual company.

 

Let’s have an awesome day ahead!

 

Best regards,

Mati Greenspan
Senior Market Analyst

Connect with me on….

eToro: http://etoro.tw/Mati

Twitter: https://twitter.com/matigreenspan

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matisyahu/

 

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